A Model for Special-Service Circuit Activity

The purpose of this paper is to describe a model for special-service circuit activity to assist in forecasting, provisioning, and "churn" studies, which can be summarized by a few parameters that have a physical interpretation. The calibration and measurement of the fit of this model to data in a New Jersey Bell database is being pursued simultaneously and will be reported elsewhere. The model treated here is derived from a priori consideration of the physical behavior of customers. It is based on the assumption that the number of active circuits, although growing, is in some sense in *Bell Laboratories. f, Copy right 1983, American Telephone & Telegraph Company. Photo reproduction for noncommercial use is permitted without payment of royalty provided that each reproduction is done without alteration and that the Journal reference and copyright notice are included on the first page. The title and abstract, but no other portions, of this paper may be copied or distributed royalty free by computer-based and other information-service systems without further permission. Permission to reproduce or republish any other portion of this paper must be obtained from the Editor. 2911